Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 19.706309 21.428620 23.330779 25.607120 28.284163 31.367579 35.240917
2024-12-15 16.948455 19.172812 21.807925 25.228070 29.659521 35.380038 43.649447
2024-12-22 15.096301 17.564979 20.643402 24.897664 30.868967 39.405148 53.594312
2024-12-29 13.775794 16.376403 19.751460 24.659847 32.039257 43.629613 65.858292
2025-01-05 12.783517 15.460674 19.050024 24.499952 33.207312 48.156729 81.486026
2025-01-12 11.872090 14.541292 18.207831 23.961974 33.612242 51.476255 97.359304
2025-01-19 11.529682 14.351654 18.351389 24.910213 36.674367 61.019135 140.527390
2025-01-26 10.941346 13.756728 17.826599 24.692670 37.577664 66.472095 182.108032
2025-02-02 10.500854 13.333855 17.510145 24.761504 39.029783 74.016972 257.073474
2025-02-09 10.142644 13.000323 17.292790 24.958876 40.784581 83.528433 405.510951
2025-02-16 9.794319 12.654387 17.020162 25.011743 42.240275 93.328719 714.315404
2025-02-23 9.415581 12.237175 16.596277 24.726155 42.854926 100.934621 1365.655546
2025-03-02 9.115712 11.927666 16.332248 24.727903 44.221754 113.141087 7075.872757
2025-03-09 8.799917 11.575920 15.972087 24.500009 44.973829 123.937134 NaN
2025-03-16 8.505353 11.241663 15.617717 24.242796 45.602075 135.367741 NaN
2025-03-23 8.243404 10.945363 15.307730 24.040832 46.349282 149.095388 NaN
2025-03-30 8.010954 10.684363 15.041102 23.898953 47.250536 166.066051 NaN
2025-04-06 7.738558 10.347217 14.621041 23.387763 46.928151 174.317297 NaN
2025-04-13 7.694871 10.375955 14.847228 24.299906 51.370590 237.660566 NaN
2025-04-20 7.494965 10.140305 14.583421 24.092280 52.068990 267.989311 NaN
2025-04-27 7.344646 9.979716 14.446268 24.158787 53.779777 324.515177 NaN
2025-05-04 7.219084 9.854483 14.365937 24.348330 56.044944 416.513146 NaN
2025-05-11 7.083054 9.705971 14.233261 24.399133 57.828115 532.885235 NaN